31:T51a,{ var data = [{ y: annual_mean.map(v => v[1]), x: annual_mean.map(v => v[0]), text: annual_mean.map(v => d3.format('.1f')(v[1])), name: 'Yearly mean', marker: {color:make_trans('steelblue',0.6)}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers+text', textposition:'outside' }, { y: means.map(v => v.mean), x: means.map(v => v.year), text: means.map(v => d3.format('.1f')(v.mean)),name: 'Rolling mean from 2022 back', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers+text+lines', textposition:'top' }] var layout = { height: 250, width: width *.5, font: font, barmode:'stack', showlegend: true, legend: {orientation:'h',xanchor: 'left', x:0, y: 1}, margin: {l: 65,r: 10,b: 30,t: 0}, xaxis: { showgrid: false, zeroline: false, ticks:'outside', dtick:1}, yaxis: { title: '$/MWh', showgrid: true, zeroline: true, tickformat: ',.0f', ticks:'outside', range: [40,120] }}; const div=DOM.element('div') plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false}); return html` ${div}

Mean solar tariff achieved by year. The rolling mean is the mean from that year to date.

` }32:T8b6,{ function series(dat, col, nam) { return [{ y: dat.map(v=>v.price), x: dat.map(v=>v.exceedance), mode: 'lines', line: {shape: 'spline', color: '', width:2}, fill:'', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'x,y', name: '', }, { y: [pdc_points.p95.price], x: [pdc_points.p95.exceedance], text: ['P95:' + d3.format('$.0f')(pdc_points.p95.price)], mode: 'markers+text', marker: {color: col, size:10}, textposition:'top-center', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'none', name: nam, showlegend:false }, { y: [pdc_points.p90.price], x: [pdc_points.p90.exceedance], text: ['P90:' + d3.format('$.0f')(pdc_points.p90.price)], mode: 'markers+text', marker: {color: col, size:10}, textposition:'bottom-left', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'none', name: nam, showlegend:false }, { y: [pdc_points.p75.price], x: [pdc_points.p75.exceedance], text: ['P75:' + d3.format('$.0f')(pdc_points.p75.price)], mode: 'markers+text', marker: {color: col, size:10}, textposition:'top-right', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'none', name: nam, showlegend:false }, { y: [pdc_points.p50.price], x: [pdc_points.p50.exceedance], text: ['P50:' + d3.format('$.0f')(pdc_points.p50.price)], mode: 'markers+text', marker: {color: col, size:10}, textposition:'top-right', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'none', name: nam, showlegend:false } ] } var data = [] data=data.concat(series(pdc,d3.schemeCategory10[3], 'Solar benchmark')) var layout = { height: 250, width: width, font: font, showlegend: false, legend: {orientation:'h',xanchor: 'right', x:1, y: 1}, margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 50,t: 0}, xaxis: { showgrid: true, zeroline: false, ticks:'outside', tickformat: '%.0f' }, yaxis: { title: `$/MWh`, showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: '.0f', ticks:'outside' } }; const div=DOM.element('div') plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false}); return html` ${div}

Exceedance probability of monthly solar benchmark price 2019 to date.

` }33:T19bc,viewof params = { const form = html`

Plant

Use P90 plant yield:

GreenCo

${makeSlider('greenco.base_tariff')} ${makeSlider('greenco.indexation')}

${makeSlider('greenco.adjustment_cap_plus')} ${makeSlider('greenco.adjustment_cap_minus')}

${makeSlider('greenco.adjustment_factor_up')} ${makeSlider('greenco.adjustment_factor_down')}

${makeSlider('greenco.fixed_transaction_cost')} ${makeSlider('greenco.actual_transaction_cost')}

Parameters marked * are indexed

Liquidity Buffer

${makeSlider('greenco.buffer.full_months')}

${makeSlider('greenco.buffer.partial_months')} ${makeSlider('greenco.buffer.partial_level')}

Mean Monthly Market Prices

${makeSlider('market.initial_price')} ${makeSlider('market.inflation')}

${makeSlider('market.period_1.price_percent')} ${makeSlider('market.period_1.duration_months')}

${makeSlider('market.period_2.price_percent')} ${makeSlider('market.period_2.duration_months')}

${makeSlider('market.period_3.price_percent')} ${makeSlider('market.period_3.duration_months')}

${makeSlider('market.period_4.price_percent')} ${makeSlider('market.period_4.duration_months')}

${makeSlider('market.period_5.price_percent')} ${makeSlider('market.period_5.duration_months')}

` form.value = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(scenario)) function makeSlider(indx) { let dom = html`

` return dom } function addHandler(indx, label, unit, multiplier = 1) { function set() { if (parseFloat(form[indx].value) !== objIndex(base_params, indx)) { form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).style.color = 'red' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_disp']`).textContent = parseFloat(form[indx].value) * multiplier + unit + ' (' + (objIndex(base_params, indx) * multiplier) + ')' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).textContent = label } else { form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).style.color = '' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_disp']`).textContent = parseFloat(form[indx].value) * multiplier + unit form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).textContent = label } } set() form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}']`).addEventListener("input", () => { set() console.log(form.value) setObjIndex(form.value, indx, parseFloat(form[indx].value)) console.log(form.value) }) } addHandler('greenco.base_tariff', '*Base tariff', ' $/MWh') addHandler('greenco.indexation', 'Indexation', '%') addHandler('greenco.adjustment_cap_plus', '*Adjustment cap +', ' $/MWh') addHandler('greenco.adjustment_cap_minus', '*Adjustment cap -', ' $/MWh') addHandler('greenco.adjustment_factor_up', 'Passthrough upside', '%') addHandler('greenco.adjustment_factor_down', 'Passthrough downside', '%') addHandler('greenco.fixed_transaction_cost', '*Fixed transaction cost', ' $/MWh') addHandler('greenco.actual_transaction_cost', '*Actual transaction cost', ' $/MWh') addHandler('greenco.buffer.full_months', 'Months of full cover' , ' months') addHandler('greenco.buffer.partial_months', 'Months of partial cover', ' months') addHandler('greenco.buffer.partial_level', 'Level of partial cover','%') addHandler('market.initial_price', 'Base Price', ' $/MWh') addHandler('market.inflation', 'Price Inflation', ' %') addHandler('market.period_1.price_percent', 'Yrs 1-5 Price', '% of P50') addHandler('market.period_1.duration_months', 'Duration', ' months') addHandler('market.period_2.price_percent', 'Yrs 6-10 Price', '% of P50') addHandler('market.period_2.duration_months', 'Duration', ' months') addHandler('market.period_3.price_percent', 'Yrs 11-15 Price', '% of P50') addHandler('market.period_3.duration_months', 'Duration', ' months') addHandler('market.period_4.price_percent', 'Yrs 16-20 Price', '% of P50') addHandler('market.period_4.duration_months', 'Duration', ' months') addHandler('market.period_5.price_percent', 'Yrs 21-25 Price', '% of P50') addHandler('market.period_5.duration_months', 'Duration', ' months') form.addEventListener("input", () => { if (form['use_p90'].checked) { form.value.plant.yield_curve = 'p90' } else { form.value.plant.yield_curve = 'p50' } }) return form }34:Td31,{ var data = [ { y: pers.map(d=>d.applicable_tariff), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12),stackgroup: 'one', mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#9eadf4', width: 0}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, name: 'Applicable tariff' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.fixed_transaction_cost), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), stackgroup: 'one', mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#a3b4c2', width: 0}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, name: 'Transaction costs' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.greenco_specific_margin), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), stackgroup: 'one', mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#e9ab61', width: 0}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, name: 'GreenCo Margin' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.buffer_recharge / d.yield), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12),stackgroup: 'one', mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#abebc6', width: 0}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, name: 'Buffer Recharge' },{ y: pers.map(d=> (-d.buffer_drawdown / d.yield)), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12),stackgroup: 'two', mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#f1948a', width: 0}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, name: 'Buffer Drawdown' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.base_tariff), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), text: pers.map(d=>'Year:' + d3.format('.1f')(d.period/12)), mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: 'grey', width: 2}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'text+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Base Tariff' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.base_tariff+d.adjustment_range_lower), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), mode: 'lines', line: {dash:'dashdot', color: 'grey', width: 1}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, name: 'Cap' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.base_tariff+d.adjustment_range_upper), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), mode: 'lines', line: {dash:'dashdot', color: 'grey', width: 1}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, name: 'Cap' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.benchmark_price), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#ba4a00', width: 1.5}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, name: 'SAPP Benchmark price' },{ y: pers.map(d=>d.applicable_tariff), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#2471a3', width: 1.5}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, name: 'Applicable tariff line' }] var layout = { height: 370, width: width, font: font, showlegend: true, legend: {orientation: 'h',xanchor: 'left', x:0, y: 1}, margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 0,t: 10}, xaxis: { showgrid: true, zeroline: false,dtick:1, range: [0, d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.period/12))], range: [0, d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.period/12))] }, yaxis: { title: `$/MWh`, range: [ d3.min(pers.map(d=>-d.buffer_drawdown / d.yield*1.1))-20, d3.max([d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.base_tariff+ d.adjustment_range_upper)),d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.benchmark_price))])+20 ], showgrid: true, zeroline: true, tickformat: '.0f', ticks:'outside' } }; const div=DOM.element('div') plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false}); return html`${div}` }35:T49e,{ var data = [ { y: pers.map(d=>d.buffer_recharge/1000), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), bargap:10, mode: 'lines', marker: {shape: '', color: 'green', width: 2}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'x+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Buffer Recharge' }, { y: pers.map(d=>d.buffer_drawdown/1000), x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12), mode: 'lines', marker: {shape: '', color: '#CD5C5C', width: 2}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'x+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Buffer Drawdown' }] var layout = { height: 150, width: width, font: font, barmode:'stack', bargap:0, showlegend: true, legend: {orientation: 'h',xanchor: 'right', x:0.95, y: 0.95}, margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 12,t: 0}, xaxis: { showgrid: true, zeroline: false, dtick:1, showticklabels:false }, yaxis: { title: `$000s`, showgrid: true, zeroline: true, tickformat: ',.0f', ticks:'outside', range:[0, d3.max([d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.buffer_drawdown/1000)),d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.buffer_recharge/1000))])*1.2] } }; const div=DOM.element('div') plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false}); return html`${div}` }36:T1f72,

Parameter	Year 1	Year 10
Benchmark price	${d3.format('.1f')(p95_run.benchmark_price)}	${d3.format('.1f')(p5_run.benchmark_price)}	from the market
Year	${d3.format('.1f')(p95_run.year)}	${d3.format('.1f')(p5_run.year)}
Energy yield	${d3.format(',.3r')(p95_run.yield)}	${d3.format(',.3r')(p5_run.yield)}	from P&E model
Base tariff	${d3.format('.3r')(p95_run.base_tariff)}	${d3.format('.3r')(p5_run.base_tariff)}	by agreement
Fixed transaction costs	${d3.format('.3r')(p95_run.fixed_transaction_cost)}	${d3.format('.3r')(p5_run.fixed_transaction_cost)}	by agreement
Reference tariff	${d3.format('.3r')(p95_run.reference_tariff)}	${d3.format('.3r')(p5_run.reference_tariff)}	Base tariff + Fixed transaction cost
Adjustment cap lower	${d3.format('.3r')(p95_run.adjustment_range_lower)}	${d3.format('.3r')(p5_run.adjustment_range_lower)}	by agreement
Adjustment cap upper	${d3.format('.3r')(p95_run.adjustment_range_upper)}	${d3.format('.3r')(p5_run.adjustment_range_upper)}	by agreement
Market Sharing %	${d3.format('.3r')(p95_run.adjustment_factor)}	${d3.format('.3r')(p5_run.adjustment_factor)}	by agreement
Tariff difference	${d3.format(',.3r')(p95_run.tariff_difference)}	${d3.format(',.3r')(p5_run.tariff_difference)}	Benchmark price - Reference tariff
Tariff adjustment	${d3.format(',.3r')(p95_run.tariff_adjustment)}	${d3.format(',.3r')(p5_run.tariff_adjustment)}	Tariff difference * Adjustment factor
Capped tariff adjustment	${d3.format(',.3r')(p95_run.tariff_adjustment_capped)}	${d3.format(',.3r')(p5_run.tariff_adjustment_capped)}	Tariff adjustment capped to the upper and lower caps
Applicable tariff	${d3.format(',.3r')(p95_run.applicable_tariff)}	${d3.format(',.3r')(p5_run.applicable_tariff)}	Base tariff + Capped tariff adjustment
GreenCo gross revenue	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.greenco_gross_revenue/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.greenco_gross_revenue/1000)}	Solar yield * Benchmark price
Unit transaction costs	${d3.format(',.3r')(p95_run.actual_transaction_cost)}	${d3.format(',.3r')(p5_run.actual_transaction_cost)}	by agreement
Transaction costs	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.transaction_cost/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.transaction_cost/1000)}	Solar yield * Unit transaction cost
GreenCo revenue	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.greenco_net_revenue/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.greenco_net_revenue/1000)}	Gross revenue - Transation costs
ProjectCo invoice	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.projectco_invoiced/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.projectco_invoiced/1000)}	Solar yield * Applicable tariff
GreenCo revenue > ProjectCo invoice	${(p95_run.greenco_net_revenue > p95_run.projectco_invoiced)}	${(p5_run.greenco_net_revenue > p5_run.projectco_invoiced)}
ProjectCo payment	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.projectco_payment/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.projectco_payment/1000)}	Min of ProjectCo invoice and Buffer position + GreenCo revenue
GreenCo defecit	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.greenco_defecit/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.greenco_defecit/1000)}	ProjectCo invoiced - GreenCo revenue
GreenCo margin	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.greenco_margin/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.greenco_margin/1000)}	GreenCo revenue - ProjectCo invoiced - Buffer recharge
Buffer size	${d3.format(',.2r')(buffer_size/1000)}		by agreement
Buffer drawdown	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.buffer_drawdown/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.buffer_drawdown/1000)}	Min of GreenCo defecit and Buffer position
Buffer recharge	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.buffer_recharge/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.buffer_recharge/1000)}	Min of GreenCo revenue - ProjectCo invoice and Buffer size - Buffer position
Buffer position	${d3.format(',.2r')(p95_run.buffer_position/1000)}	${d3.format(',.2r')(p5_run.buffer_position/1000)}	Previous + recharge - drawdown
GreenCo specific margin	${d3.format('.2r')(p95_run.greenco_specific_margin)}	${d3.format('.2r')(p5_run.greenco_specific_margin)}	GreenCo margin / Solar yield
ProjectCo tariff achieved	${d3.format('.2r')(p95_run.projectco_tariff_achieved)}	${d3.format('.2r')(p5_run.projectco_tariff_achieved)}	ProjectCo payment / Solar yield

37:T466,base_params = { let median2019=Math.round(pdc_points.p50.price*10)/10 return { plant: { yield_curve: 'p50', capacity: 25, net_factors: { availability: 0.98, planned_outages: 0.998, unplanned_outages: 0.995 }, degredation: { year_one: 0.02, year_plusone: 0.0035 } }, greenco: { indexation: 2, base_tariff: 45, adjustment_cap_plus: 40, adjustment_cap_minus: 5, adjustment_factor_up: 80, adjustment_factor_down: 80, fixed_transaction_cost: 10, actual_transaction_cost: 10, buffer: { full_months: 6, partial_months: 5, partial_level: 50 } }, market: { years:25, inflation:2, initial_price: median2019, period_1: { price_percent: 100, duration_months: 60 }, period_2: { price_percent: 100, duration_months: 60 }, period_3: { price_percent: 100, duration_months: 60 }, period_4: { price_percent: 100, duration_months: 60 }, period_5: { price_percent: 100, duration_months: 60 } } } }38:T105a,fGreenCo = function(dam_prices, run, prms, pers) { let buffer_position = buffer_size pers.map((p, i) => { // ========================================================================================================= // Copy in some values p.run=run p.yield = plant_yield[i].yield p.yield_undegraded_gross = plant_yield[i].yield_undegraded_gross p.yield_undegraded_net = plant_yield[i].yield_undegraded_net p.mu = dam_prices[i].mu p.sd = dam_prices[i].annual_sd // ========================================================================================================= // GreenCo model p.index_factor = (1 + (prms.greenco.indexation / 100)) ** (p.period / 12) p.benchmark_price = dam_prices[i].tariff p.base_tariff = prms.greenco.base_tariff * p.index_factor p.fixed_transaction_cost = prms.greenco.fixed_transaction_cost * p.index_factor p.reference_tariff = p.base_tariff + p.fixed_transaction_cost p.adjustment_range_lower = - (prms.greenco.adjustment_cap_minus * p.index_factor) p.adjustment_range_upper = prms.greenco.adjustment_cap_plus * p.index_factor if (p.reference_tariff > p.base_tariff) { p.adjustment_factor = prms.greenco.adjustment_factor_up } else { p.adjustment_factor = prms.greenco.adjustment_factor_down } p.tariff_difference = (p.benchmark_price - p.reference_tariff) p.tariff_adjustment = (p.adjustment_factor / 100) * p.tariff_difference p.tariff_adjustment_capped = d3.max([p.tariff_adjustment, p.adjustment_range_lower ]) p.tariff_adjustment_capped = d3.min([p.tariff_adjustment_capped, p.adjustment_range_upper ]) p.applicable_tariff = p.base_tariff + p.tariff_adjustment_capped // ========================================================================================================= // Cashflows and buffer movements p.greenco_gross_revenue = p.yield * p.benchmark_price p.actual_transaction_cost = prms.greenco.actual_transaction_cost * p.index_factor p.transaction_cost = p.yield * p.actual_transaction_cost p.greenco_net_revenue = p.greenco_gross_revenue - p.transaction_cost p.projectco_invoiced = p.yield * p.applicable_tariff if (p.greenco_net_revenue > p.projectco_invoiced) { // Revenue exceeds cost, no buffer drawdown, buffer replenishment if necassary p.projectco_payment = p.projectco_invoiced p.buffer_drawdown = 0 p.greenco_defecit = 0 if (buffer_position < buffer_size) { p.buffer_recharge = d3.min([p.greenco_net_revenue - p.projectco_invoiced, buffer_size - buffer_position]) } else { p.buffer_recharge = 0 } p.greenco_margin = p.greenco_net_revenue - p.projectco_invoiced - p.buffer_recharge buffer_position += p.buffer_recharge } else { // Cost exceeds revenue, buffer drawdown p.greenco_defecit = p.projectco_invoiced - p.greenco_net_revenue p.buffer_drawdown = d3.min([p.greenco_defecit, buffer_position]) p.projectco_payment = d3.min([p.projectco_invoiced, buffer_position + p.greenco_net_revenue]) p.buffer_recharge = 0 p.greenco_margin = 0 buffer_position -= p.buffer_drawdown } p.projectco_tariff_achieved = p.projectco_payment / p.yield p.greenco_specific_margin = p.greenco_margin / p.yield p.buffer_position = buffer_position p.buffer_position_pct = p.buffer_position / buffer_size }) return { run: run, buffer_drawdown_months: d3.count(pers.filter(v => v.buffer_drawdown > 0), v => 1)/pers.length, buffer_zero_months: d3.count(pers.filter(v => v.buffer_position==0), v => 1)/pers.length, first_period_buffer_zero: d3.min(pers.filter(v => v.buffer_position==0), v => v.period), projectco_defecit_months: d3.count(pers.filter(v => v.projectco_payment < v.projectco_invoiced), v => 1)/pers.length, projectco_tariff_achieved: d3.mean(pers, v => v.projectco_tariff_achieved), // projectco_payment: d3.mean(pers, v => v.projectco_payment), //greenco_margin: d3.mean(pers, v => v.greenco_margin), //buffer_position: d3.mean(pers, v => v.buffer_position), periods: pers } }39:[] 2f:{"title":" Ilute GreenCo Model 22 - Scenarios","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"html`

Ilute GreenCo Model 22 - Scenarios

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8482,"value":"Version 1.0: August 2022","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html"},{"id":6126,"value":"html`\n

Plant

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6539,"value":"html`\nPlant capacity: ${d3.format(',.0f')(params.plant.capacity)}MWac
\nPlant Degradation: Year one ${d3.format('.2%')(params.plant.degredation.year_one)}, Subsequent years ${d3.format('.2%')(params.plant.degredation.year_plusone)}
\nPlant netting factor: ${d3.format(',.3f')(plant_netting_factor)}

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5584,"value":"html`\n

Historic Solar Price

\nFor derivation see here.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8726,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9421,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5940,"value":"html`\n

Forecast & Tariff Model

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5953,"value":"viewof scenario_number = {\n const form = html`

\n Scenario \n

\n \n\n

\n `\n\n form.oninput = () => {\n form.value = parseInt(form.input.value)\n }\n form.oninput()\n return form\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5973,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9428,"value":"html`\nFor period 2019 to date mean monthly solar benchmark price distribution was -
\nP50: ${d3.format('.1f')(pdc_points.p50.price)} (100% of P50)
\nP75: ${d3.format('.1f')(pdc_points.p75.price)} (${d3.format('.0f')(pdc_points.p75_pct)}% of P50)
\nP90: ${d3.format('.1f')(pdc_points.p90.price)} (${d3.format('.0f')(pdc_points.p90_pct)}% of P50)
\nP95: ${d3.format('.1f')(pdc_points.p95.price)} (${d3.format('.0f')(pdc_points.p95_pct)}% of P50)
\nP99: ${d3.format('.1f')(pdc_points.p99.price)} (${d3.format('.0f')(pdc_points.p99_pct)}% of P50)
\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9358,"value":"{ \n var data = [\n {\n y: prices.map(d=>d.tariff),\n x: prices.map(d=>d.period/12),\n mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#5499c7', width: 2},\n type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'x+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Benchmark price'\n }]\n \n var layout = {\n height: 180, width: width,\n font: font, \n showlegend: true, legend: {orientation: 'v',xanchor: 'right', x:1, y: 1},\n margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 50,t: 0},\n xaxis: {\n showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: '.0f', ticks: 'outside', title: 'year', dtick:1\n },\n yaxis: {\n showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: '.1f', ticks:'outside', title: '$/MWh'\n }\n };\n \n const div=DOM.element('div')\n plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false});\n return html`\n ${div}` \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6869,"value":"html`\n

Output

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8815,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6422,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6253,"value":"{ \n var data = [\n {\n y: pers.map(d=>d.buffer_position/buffer_size),\n x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12),\n text: pers.map(d=>'Year:' + d3.format('.1f')(d.period/12)),\n mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#5499c7', width: 2},\n type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'text+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Buffer position', fill:'tozeroy'\n }]\n \n var layout = {\n height: 180, width: width,\n font: font, \n showlegend: true, legend: {orientation: 'v',xanchor: 'right', x:1, y: 1},\n margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 50,t: 0},\n xaxis: {\n showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: '.0f', ticks: 'outside', title: 'year', dtick:1, range: [0, d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.period/12))]\n },\n yaxis: {\n title: `%`, range:[0, 1.05],\n showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: '%01f', ticks:'outside'\n }\n };\n \n const div=DOM.element('div')\n plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false});\n\n return html`\n ${div}` \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9531,"value":"{ \n var data = [\n {\n y: pers.map(d=>d.buffer_position/1000),\n x: pers.map(d=>d.period/12),\n text: pers.map(d=>'Year:' + d3.format('.1f')(d.period/12)),\n mode: 'lines', line: {shape: '', color: '#5499c7', width: 2},\n type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'text+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Buffer position', fill:'tozeroy'\n }]\n \n var layout = {\n height: 180, width: width,\n font: font, \n showlegend: true, legend: {orientation: 'v',xanchor: 'right', x:1, y: 1},\n margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 50,t: 0},\n xaxis: {\n showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: '.0f', ticks: 'outside', title: 'year', dtick:1, range: [0, d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.period/12))]\n },\n yaxis: {\n title: `$000s`, range:[0,d3.max(pers.map(d=>d.buffer_position/1000))*1.1],\n showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: ',.2r', ticks:'outside'\n }\n };\n \n const div=DOM.element('div')\n plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false});\n\n return html`\n ${div}` \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8721,"value":"html`\n

Example months

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8594,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html"},{"id":7271,"value":"html`\n

Export

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8411,"value":"function serialize (data) {\n let parser = new json2csv.Parser();\n let csv = parser.parse(data);\n return new Blob([csv], {type: \"text/csv\"}) \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9561,"value":"DOM.download(serialize(greenco_run.periods), 'Ilute Model - ' + scenarios[scenario_number].name + '.csv', \"Download CSV\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6006,"value":"html`\n

\n

Setup

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9414,"value":"import {pdc} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-solar-tariff-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9416,"value":"pdc_points={\n return {\n p99: pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.01)],\n p95: pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.05)],\n p90: pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.1)] ,\n p75: pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.25)],\n p50: pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.5)] ,\n\n p99_pct: Math.round(pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.01)].price/pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.5)].price*1000)/10,\n p95_pct: Math.round(pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.05)].price/pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.5)].price*1000)/10,\n p90_pct: Math.round(pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.1)].price/pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.5)].price*1000)/10,\n p75_pct: Math.round(pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.25)].price/pdc[Math.floor(pdc.length*0.5)].price*1000)/10, \n } \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9148,"value":"prices= { \n let periods = fPeriods(params.market.years)//Array(5).fill().map((x,i)=>i)\n\n let sum=1\n let seg_params = [...Array(5).keys()].map(v=>params.market['period_'+ (v+1)]).map((v,i)=>{\n v.from=sum\n sum+=v.duration_months\n if (i==4) {sum=periods.length}\n v.to=sum\n return v\n })\n \n periods.map(y => {\n y.prms = seg_params.filter(v=>y.period>=v.from && y.period<=v.to)[0]\n y.index_factor = (1 + (params.market.inflation / 100)) ** (y.period / 12)\n\n y.tariff = y.prms.price_percent / 100 * params.market.initial_price * y.index_factor\n return y\n })\n return periods\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8958,"value":"pers = greenco_run.periods.filter(v=>v.year<600)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8635,"value":"p5_run = {\n return greenco_run.periods[119]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8531,"value":"p95_run = {\n return greenco_run.periods[0]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8269,"value":"md `\n## Scenarios\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8180,"value":"scenario={\n let s = scenarios[scenario_number].fn()\n s.number = scenario_number\n return s\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":7411,"value":"scenarios = [\n {name: 'Base Case (P50)', fn: fBaseCase},\n {name: 'P99 Market', fn: fP99},\n {name: 'P95 Market', fn: fP95},\n {name: 'P90 Market', fn: fP90},\n {name: '22 $/MWh', fn: f22MWh},\n {name: '43 $/MWh', fn: f43MWh},\n \n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":7407,"value":"fBaseCase = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = 'WSP Base Case'\n return p\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9453,"value":"fP99 = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = 'P99 Market'\n p.market.period_1.price_percent=pdc_points.p99_pct\n p.market.period_1.duration_months=69\n return p\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9467,"value":"fP95 = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = 'P95 Market'\n p.market.period_1.price_percent=pdc_points.p95_pct\n p.market.period_2.price_percent=pdc_points.p95_pct\n p.market.period_3.price_percent=pdc_points.p95_pct\n p.market.period_4.price_percent=pdc_points.p95_pct\n p.market.period_5.price_percent=pdc_points.p95_pct\n return p\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9548,"value":"f43MWh = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = '43 $/MWh'\n p.market.period_1.price_percent=57\n p.market.period_1.duration_months=18\n return p\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9552,"value":"f22MWh = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = '22 $/MWh'\n p.market.period_1.price_percent=29\n p.market.period_1.duration_months=18\n return p\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9456,"value":"fP90 = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = 'P90 Market'\n p.market.period_1.price_percent=pdc_points.p90_pct\n p.market.period_2.price_percent=pdc_points.p90_pct\n p.market.period_3.price_percent=pdc_points.p90_pct\n p.market.period_4.price_percent=pdc_points.p90_pct\n p.market.period_5.price_percent=pdc_points.p90_pct\n return p\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":7400,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5999,"value":"md `\n## GreenCo\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6576,"value":"greenco_all_points = greenco_run.periods","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6211,"value":"greenco_run = {\n let start = DateTime.now()\n let ret = fGreenCo(prices, 1, params, fPeriods(params.market.years))\n console.log('Model: ' + (DateTime.now() - start))\n return ret\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6187,"value":"$38","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6227,"value":"buffer_size = {\n let yr1yield = d3.sum(plant_yield.slice(0,12).map(v => v.yield))\n let yr = yr1yield * (params.greenco.base_tariff + params.greenco.fixed_transaction_cost)\n return (yr /12 * params.greenco.buffer.full_months) + (yr /12 * params.greenco.buffer.partial_months * (params.greenco.buffer.partial_level / 100))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5709,"value":"md `\n### Plant\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5700,"value":"plant_netting_factor = params.plant.net_factors.availability * params.plant.net_factors.planned_outages * params.plant.net_factors.unplanned_outages","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6039,"value":"function fDegredation(year, month) {\n if (year === 1) { \n return 1 - params.plant.degredation.year_one/12*month \n } else {\n return 1 - (params.plant.degredation.year_one + (params.plant.degredation.year_plusone * (year - 2)) + (params.plant.degredation.year_plusone/12*month))\n }\n \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6047,"value":"plant_yield = {\n let start = DateTime.now()\n let pers = fPeriods(params.market.years)\n pers.map(p => {\n p.degredation = fDegredation(p.year, p.month)\n p.yield_undegraded_gross = monthly_yield_totals[p.month-1]\n p.yield_undegraded_net = p.yield_undegraded_gross * plant_netting_factor\n p.yield = p.yield_undegraded_net * p.degredation\n p.specific_yield = p.yield / params.plant.capacity\n })\n console.log('Yield: ' + (DateTime.now() - start))\n return pers\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6116,"value":"monthly_yield_totals = {\n return monthly_hours.map(m => {\n let obs=Object.entries(m)\n obs.pop()\n return d3.sum(obs, v => v[1])\n })\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":1469,"value":"md `\n## SAPP DAM Forecast Model\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8063,"value":"fPeriods = function(yrs, skip=1) {\n //let ret = []\n let count = (yrs * 12) / skip\n let pers = [...Array(count).keys()]\n\n let ret = pers.map(p => {\n let per = (p*skip)+1\n let year = Math.floor((per-1) / 12)+1\n return {\n period: per,\n year: year,\n month: (per - year * 12) + 12\n }\n })\n return ret\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6031,"value":"md `\n### SAPP DAM\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8742,"value":"import {means} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-solar-tariff-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6470,"value":"import {sds} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-solar-tariff-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6482,"value":"import {annual_sd_monthly_diff} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-solar-tariff-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6466,"value":"import {annual_mean} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-solar-tariff-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4499,"value":"md `\n### Data Load\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6790,"value":"import {monthly_price} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-solar-tariff-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6933,"value":"monthly_hours = params.plant.yield_curve==='p90'? monthly_hours_p90 : monthly_hours_p50","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5092,"value":"monthly_hours_p90 = {\n const raw = (await d3.csv(\"https://gis.westernpower.org/data/sapp/output/pv/25mw_p90.csv?\" + Math.floor(Math.random() * 1000),d3.autoType)) \n return raw\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5090,"value":"monthly_hours_p50 = {\n const raw = (await d3.csv(\"https://gis.westernpower.org/data/sapp/output/pv/25mw_p50.csv?\" + Math.floor(Math.random() * 1000),d3.autoType))\n return raw\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6028,"value":"md `\n### Setup\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4509,"value":"base_url='https://gis.westernpower.org/data/sapp/output/'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4512,"value":"market_ref='dam'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5103,"value":"function month_days(i) {\n if(i === 4 || i === 6 || i === 9 || i === 11) {\n\t\treturn 30\n\t} else if(i === 2) {\n\t\treturn 28\n\t} else {\n\t\treturn 31\n\t}\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5108,"value":"month_names={\n return {\n 0:'Jan',\n 1:'Feb',\n 2:'Mar',\n 3:'Apr',\n 4:'May',\n 5:'Jun',\n 6:'Jul',\n 7:'Aug',\n 8:'Sep',\n 9:'Oct',\n 10:'Nov',\n 11:'Dec',\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5152,"value":"month_dict={\n return {\n 'Jan':{index: 0, group: 1},\n 'Feb':{index: 1, group: 1},\n 'Mar':{index: 2, group: 6},\n 'Apr':{index: 3, group: 6},\n 'May':{index: 4, group: 2},\n 'Jun':{index: 5, group: 2},\n 'Jul':{index: 6, group: 3},\n 'Aug':{index: 7, group: 3},\n 'Sep':{index: 8, group: 4},\n 'Oct':{index: 9, group: 4},\n 'Nov':{index: 10, group: 4},\n 'Dec':{index: 11, group: 1},\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":964,"value":"md `\n### Imports\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":7582,"value":"applyFn=function(object1, object2, index, fn) {\n return fn(objIndex(object1, index),objIndex(object2, index))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":7630,"value":"setObjIndex = function(obj, indx, val) {\n // Retrieve from an object using a hierarchical index either as an array ['greenco','buffer'] or string 'greenco.buffer'\n if (!Array.isArray(indx)) { indx = indx.split('.') }\n let ret=obj\n indx.forEach((v, i) => {\n if (i ret = ret[v])\n return ret\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4702,"value":"function catCol(index) {\n return d3.schemeCategory10[index]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":3027,"value":"make_trans=function(col,opacity) {\n let c=d3.color(col)\n c.opacity=opacity\n return c.formatRgb()\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4690,"value":"function movingAverage(values, N) {\n let i = 0;\n let sum = 0;\n const means = new Float64Array(values.length).fill(NaN);\n for (let n = Math.min(N - 1, values.length); i < n; ++i) {\n sum += values[i];\n }\n for (let n = values.length; i < n; ++i) {\n sum += values[i];\n means[i - Math.floor(N / 2)] = sum / N;\n sum -= values[i - N + 1];\n }\n return means;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":14,"value":"font = ({\n family: 'Courier New, monospace',\n size: 13,\n color: '#6f6f6f'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":16,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@6\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":18,"value":"plt = require(\"https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5957,"value":"html`\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":5117,"value":"html`\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":1201,"value":"ss = require('simple-statistics')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4407,"value":"style=html`css\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":2137,"value":"luxon = require(\"luxon@1/build/amd/luxon.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":2140,"value":"DateTime = luxon.DateTime","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8413,"value":"json2csv = require(\"json2csv\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4790,"value":" pageAnalytics = {\n const id = 'G-R36F5ZJPWZ';\n await require(`https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=${id}`).catch(() => {});\n const dataLayer = window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];\n const location = html``;\n gtag('js', new Date());\n gtag('config', id, {\n 'page_path': location.pathname,\n 'page_location' : location.href\n });\n return md`^{[Google Analytics] (https://www.google.com/analytics/terms/).}`;\n function gtag() { dataLayer.push(arguments); }\n }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W39","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}