31:T6a7,{ let margin = ({top: 20, right: 65, bottom: 0, left: 73}) let height=300 let ys=timeofday.map(d => d.dayofweek == 1 ? month_names[d.month-1] : d.dayofweek == 6 ? 'Sat' : 'Sun') ys.splice(12,0,'') let y = d3.scaleBand() .domain(ys) .range([margin.top, height - margin.bottom]) .padding(0.1) .round(true) let x = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, 24]) .range([margin.left, width - margin.right]) .interpolate(d3.interpolateRound) const svg = d3 .create("svg") .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]) .style("max-width", `${width}px`) .style("height", "auto") svg.append("g") .attr('transform', `translate(0,${margin.top})`) .call(d3.axisTop(x).ticks(23)) .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick text") .attr("font-size", 12)) svg.append("g") .attr('transform', `translate(${margin.left},0)`) .call(d3.axisLeft(y)) .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick text") .attr("font-size", 12)) svg.append("g") .attr('stroke', 'white') .attr('stroke-width', '1') .attr('fill-opacity', '0.5') .selectAll("rect") .data(timeofday_flat) .join("rect") .attr('y', d=>y(d.dayofweek == 1 ? month_names[d.month-1] : d.dayofweek == 6 ? 'Sat' : 'Sun')) .attr('x', d=>x(d.hour)) .attr('width', x(1)-x(0)) .attr('height', y.bandwidth()) .attr('fill', d=>catCol(cats[d.cat].index) ) return html` ${svg.node()}

Average pricing patterns on the SAPP DAM market by time of day and month and for Saturdays and Sundays.

` }32:Taa5,{ var data = [ { y: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.off_morning), x: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.year), name: 'Offpeak to Morning', marker: {color:make_trans(d3.schemeCategory10[3],0.6)}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers', textposition:'outside' }, { y: means_expanding.map(v => v.off_morning), x: means_expanding.map(v => v.year), text: means_expanding.map(v => d3.format('.0f')(v.off_morning)), type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, mode:'markers+text+lines', textposition:'top', line: {color:d3.schemeCategory10[3]} }, { y: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.standard_evening), x: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.year), name: 'Standard to Evening', marker: {color:make_trans(d3.schemeCategory10[9],0.6)}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers', textposition:'outside' }, { y: means_expanding.map(v => v.standard_evening), x: means_expanding.map(v => v.year), text: means_expanding.map(v => d3.format('.0f')(v.standard_evening)),name: 'Expanding mean from 2022 back', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, mode:'markers+text+lines', textposition:'top', line: {color:d3.schemeCategory10[9]} }, { y: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.saturday), x: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.year), name: 'Saturday', marker: {color:make_trans(d3.schemeCategory10[8],0.6)}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers', textposition:'outside' }, { y: means_expanding.map(v => v.saturday), x: means_expanding.map(v => v.year), text: means_expanding.map(v => d3.format('.0f')(v.saturday)), type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, mode:'markers+text+lines', textposition:'top', line: {color:d3.schemeCategory10[8]} }] var layout = { height: 300, width: width *.75, font: font, showlegend: true, legend: {orientation:'h',xanchor: 'left', x:0, y: 1}, margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 30,t: 0}, xaxis: { showgrid: false, zeroline: false, ticks:'outside', dtick:1}, yaxis: { title: '$/MWh', showgrid: true, zeroline: true, tickformat: ',.0f', ticks:'outside', range: [0,220] }}; const div=container('Time-of-day price differentials on the SAPP DAM Market. Bars - Mean differentials by year. Lines - Expanding means, the mean from that year to date reading from right to left.') plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false}) return html`${div}` }33:Tc72,viewof params = { const form = html`` form.value = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(scenario)) function makeSlider(indx) { let dom = html`

` return dom } function addHandler(indx, label, unit, multiplier = 1) { function set() { if (parseFloat(form[indx].value) !== objIndex(base_params, indx)) { form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).style.color = 'red' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_disp']`).textContent = parseFloat(form[indx].value) * multiplier + unit + ' (' + (objIndex(base_params, indx) * multiplier) + ')' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).textContent = label } else { form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).style.color = '' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_disp']`).textContent = parseFloat(form[indx].value) * multiplier + unit form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).textContent = label } } set() form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}']`).addEventListener("input", () => { set() console.log(form.value) setObjIndex(form.value, indx, parseFloat(form[indx].value)) console.log(form.value) }) } addHandler('battery.capacity', 'Capacity', ' MWh') addHandler('battery.degredation', 'Degredation', ' MWh/(365 cycles)') addHandler('battery.efficiency', 'Efficiency', '%') addHandler('battery.life', 'Life', ' years') addHandler('forecast.differentials.off_morning', 'Offpeak to Morning', '$/MWh') addHandler('forecast.differentials.standard_evening', 'Standard to Evening', '$/MWh') addHandler('forecast.differentials.saturday', 'Saturday', '$/MWh') addHandler('forecast.sapp_cost', 'SAPP costs', '$/MWh') return form }34:T8f4,html`

	Off-peak to Morning	Standard to Evening	Saturday	Total
Average cycles per month	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.off_morning/12)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.standard_evening)/12}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.saturday/12)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.total/12)}
Average cycles per year	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.off_morning)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.standard_evening)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.saturday)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.total)}
Mean Differentials after Costs ($/MWh)	${d3.format('.1f')(differentials_after_costs.off_morning)}	${d3.format('.1f')(differentials_after_costs.standard_evening)}	${d3.format('.1f')(differentials_after_costs.saturday)}
Gross Monthly Margin ($000)	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.off_morning/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.standard_evening/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.saturday)/1000}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.total)/1000}
Monthly SAPP Costs ($000)	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.off_morning/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.standard_evening/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.saturday)/1000}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.total)/1000}
Net Monthly Margin ($000)	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.off_morning/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.standard_evening/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.saturday)/1000}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.total)/1000}

`35:T56b,monthly_revenue_yr0 = { let ret = { gross: { off_morning: params.forecast.differentials.off_morning * (annual_cycles.off_morning / 12) * params.battery.capacity * (params.battery.efficiency/100), standard_evening: params.forecast.differentials.standard_evening * (annual_cycles.standard_evening / 12) * params.battery.capacity * (params.battery.efficiency/100), saturday: params.forecast.differentials.saturday * (annual_cycles.saturday / 12) * params.battery.capacity * (params.battery.efficiency/100), } } ret.gross.total = ret.gross.off_morning + ret.gross.standard_evening + ret.gross.saturday ret.sapp_costs = { off_morning: ((annual_cycles.off_morning / 12) * params.battery.capacity * params.forecast.sapp_cost), standard_evening: ((annual_cycles.standard_evening / 12) * params.battery.capacity * params.forecast.sapp_cost), saturday: ((annual_cycles.saturday / 12) * params.battery.capacity * params.forecast.sapp_cost) } ret.sapp_costs.total = ret.sapp_costs.off_morning + ret.sapp_costs.standard_evening + ret.sapp_costs.saturday ret.net = { off_morning: ret.gross.off_morning - ret.sapp_costs.off_morning, standard_evening: ret.gross.standard_evening - ret.sapp_costs.standard_evening, saturday: ret.gross.saturday - ret.sapp_costs.saturday, total: ret.gross.total - ret.sapp_costs.total } return ret }36:[] 2f:{"title":"SAPP DAM Time of Day Arbitrage with Battery","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"

SAPP DAM Time of Day Arbitrage with Battery

\nTo do:\n

Extend to time series including degredation
Model project company revenue based on :

fixed monthly capacity charge on 5MWh
fixed per cycle charge on 35MWh
proportion of trading margin

\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html"},{"id":226,"value":"

Market Patterns

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html"},{"id":230,"value":"For derivation see here.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html"},{"id":105,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":212,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":228,"value":"

Battery Storage Model

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html"},{"id":58,"value":"viewof scenario_number = {\n const form = html`

\n Scenario \n

\n \n\n

\n `\n\n form.oninput = () => {\n form.value = parseInt(form.input.value)\n }\n form.oninput()\n return form\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":136,"value":"html`\nCapacity (at installation): ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.capacity)}MWh\n
\nMaximum charge power: ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.capacity / minimum_hours.charge)}MW over ${minimum_hours.charge} hours\n
\nMaximum discharge power: ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.capacity / minimum_hours.discharge)}MW over ${minimum_hours.discharge} hours\n

\nLoss per cycle: ${d3.format('.2r')(loss_per_cycle)}MWh\n
\nStorage efficiency: ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.efficiency)}%\n
\nMinimum price differential to offset losses: ${d3.format('.4r')(100/params.battery.efficiency*100)}%\n`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":188,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":264,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":251,"value":"differentials_after_costs = {\n return {\n off_morning: params.forecast.differentials.off_morning - params.forecast.sapp_cost,\n standard_evening: params.forecast.differentials.standard_evening - params.forecast.sapp_cost,\n saturday: params.forecast.differentials.saturday - params.forecast.sapp_cost,\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":172,"value":"loss_per_cycle = params.battery.capacity * (1-params.battery.efficiency/100)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":160,"value":"annual_cycles = {\n\n let ret = {\n off_morning: 365 - 104,\n standard_evening: 365 - 104\n }\n ret.saturday = 52 * 2\n ret.total = ret.off_morning + ret.standard_evening + ret.saturday\n return ret\n}\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":131,"value":"minimum_hours = {\n return {\n off: 8,\n morning: 3,\n standard: 8,\n evening: 2,\n charge: 8,\n discharge: 2\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":45,"value":"### Scenarios","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":56,"value":"scenario={\n let s = scenarios[scenario_number].fn()\n s.number = scenario_number\n return s\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":54,"value":"scenarios = [\n {name: 'Base Case - Differentials are historic means 2019 to date.', fn: fBaseCase}\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":51,"value":"fBaseCase = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = 'Base Case'\n return p\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":48,"value":"base_params = {\n return {\n battery: {\n capacity: 35,\n degredation: 0.022,\n efficiency: 86,\n life: 6\n },\n forecast: {\n sapp_cost: 10,\n differentials: {\n off_morning: parseFloat(d3.format('.3r')(means_expanding.filter(v => v.year==2019)[0].off_morning)),\n standard_evening: parseFloat(d3.format('.3r')(means_expanding.filter(v => v.year==2019)[0].standard_evening)),\n saturday: parseFloat(d3.format('.3r')(means_expanding.filter(v => v.year==2019)[0].saturday)),\n }\n }\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":72,"value":"

Import

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html"},{"id":117,"value":"month_names={\n return {\n 0:'Jan',\n 1:'Feb',\n 2:'Mar',\n 3:'Apr',\n 4:'May',\n 5:'Jun',\n 6:'Jul',\n 7:'Aug',\n 8:'Sep',\n 9:'Oct',\n 10:'Nov',\n 11:'Dec',\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":79,"value":"means_expanding","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":216,"value":"import {yearly_differentials} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-time-of-day-arbitrage-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":77,"value":"import {means_expanding} from \"@andyflem/sapp-dam-time-of-day-arbitrage-analysis\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":107,"value":"cats = {\n return {\n evening: { index: 3, name: 'Evening', ref: 'evening', long_name: 'Evening Peak'}, \n morning: { index: 1, name: 'Morning', ref: 'morning', long_name: 'Morning Peak'}, \n standard: {index: 2, name: 'Standard', ref: 'standard', long_name: 'Daytime Standard'},\n off: {index: 0, name: 'Off-peak', ref: 'off', long_name: 'Night Off-peak'}, \n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":127,"value":"function catCol(index) {\n return d3.schemeCategory10[index]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":109,"value":"timeofday = {\n const raw = (await d3.csv(base_url + market_ref + \"_timeofday.csv?\" + Math.floor(Math.random() * 1000),d3.autoType))\n \n return raw\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":123,"value":"timeofday_flat={\n let o=[]\n timeofday.forEach(t=>{\n [...Array(24).keys()].forEach((h,i)=>{\n o.push({month: t.month, hour: i, dayofweek: t.dayofweek, cat: t[i]}) \n })\n })\n return o\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":113,"value":"market_ref='dam'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":111,"value":"base_url='https://gis.westernpower.org/data/sapp/output/'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":42,"value":"md `\n### Setup\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":219,"value":"make_trans=function(col,opacity) {\n let c=d3.color(col)\n c.opacity=opacity\n return c.formatRgb()\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":214,"value":"container = function(captionText) {\n const div=DOM.element('div')\n div.setAttribute(\"class\",\"border m-2 p-2\")\n const caption=DOM.element('figcaption')\n caption.append(captionText)\n div.append(caption)\n return div\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":33,"value":"applyFn=function(object1, object2, index, fn) {\n return fn(objIndex(object1, index),objIndex(object2, index))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":37,"value":"setObjIndex = function(obj, indx, val) {\n // Retrieve from an object using a hierarchical index either as an array ['greenco','buffer'] or string 'greenco.buffer'\n if (!Array.isArray(indx)) { indx = indx.split('.') }\n let ret=obj\n indx.forEach((v, i) => {\n if (i ret = ret[v])\n return ret\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":30,"value":"font = ({\n family: 'Courier New, monospace',\n size: 13,\n color: '#6f6f6f'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":26,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@6\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":24,"value":"plt = require(\"https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":12,"value":"ss = require('simple-statistics')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":16,"value":"html`\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":14,"value":"html`\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":10,"value":"style=html`css\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":6,"value":"DateTime = luxon.DateTime","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":8,"value":"luxon = require(\"luxon@1/build/amd/luxon.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W36","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}