31:T4b6,usersPerYearChart = { const data = usersBarData; const color = d3.scaleOrdinal() .domain(data.map(d => d.name)) .range(d3.quantize(t => d3.interpolateSpectral(t * 0.8 + 0.1), data.length).reverse()) const arcs = pie(data); const svg = d3.select(DOM.svg(width, height)) .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .style("font", "12px sans-serif"); const g = svg.append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(${width / 2},${height / 2})`); g.selectAll("path") .data(arcs) .enter().append("path") .attr("fill", d => color(d.data.year)) .attr("d", arc) .append("title") .text(d => `${d.data.name}: ${format(d.data.value)}`); const text = g.selectAll("text") .data(arcs) .enter().append("text") .attr("transform", d => `translate(${arc.centroid(d)})`) .attr("dy", "0.35em"); text.append("tspan") .attr("x", 0) .attr("y", "-0.7em") .style("font-weight", "bold") .text(d => d.data.name); text.filter(d => (d.endAngle - d.startAngle) > 0.25).append("tspan") .attr("x", 0) .attr("y", "0.7em") .attr("fill-opacity", 0.7) .text(d => format(d.data.value)); return svg.node(); }32:T548,dollarDemandPerYearChart = { const data = aggregateDollarDemandPerYear .map((value, year) => NPV(discountRate, value, year)) .map((value, year) => ({ value, year, name: `year ${year+1}` })); const color = d3.scaleOrdinal() .domain(data.map(d => d.name)) .range(d3.quantize(t => d3.interpolateSpectral(t * 0.8 + 0.1), data.length).reverse()) const arcs = pie(data); const svg = d3.select(DOM.svg(width, height)) .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .style("font", "12px sans-serif"); const g = svg.append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(${width / 2},${height / 2})`); g.selectAll("path") .data(arcs) .enter().append("path") .attr("fill", d => color(d.data.year)) .attr("d", arc) .append("title") .text(d => `${d.data.name}: ${format(d.data.value)}`); const text = g.selectAll("text") .data(arcs) .enter().append("text") .attr("transform", d => `translate(${arc.centroid(d)})`) .attr("dy", "0.35em"); text.append("tspan") .attr("x", 0) .attr("y", "-0.7em") .style("font-weight", "bold") .text(d => d.data.name); text.filter(d => (d.endAngle - d.startAngle) > 0.25).append("tspan") .attr("x", 0) .attr("y", "0.7em") .attr("fill-opacity", 0.7) .text(d => format(d.data.value)); return svg.node(); }33:T43b,{ const circumference = r => 2 * Math.PI * r return html` ` }34:T42d,{ const circumference = r => 2 * Math.PI * r return html` ` }35:[] 2f:{"title":"Status ENS Usernames utility value exploration","cells":[{"id":743,"value":"md`# Status ENS Usernames utility value exploration`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":0,"value":"slide`An exploration into the potential utility value of Ethereum Name Service usernames on Status`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":689,"value":"md`# Disclaimer:\n### We simply don't have enough history and empiricial evidence to understand all the variables that cause value to accrue in cryptoeconomic systems, nor are the crypto markets efficient enough for rational market pricing (yet). As a result the factors in this notebook are to be thought of as levers of value which can guide us in asking the right questions.\n \n### This analysis also takes a very narrow view looking specifically at the impact bonding SNT to registering a username has while completely ignoring others factors such as how an improved user experience from usernames can amplify the value of other features and bring direct value itself.\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":729,"value":"md`# Let us start with some key assumptions`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":736,"value":"md`### The values below are dynamic and will update the model when changed using the sliders`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":47,"value":"viewof numberStatusUsers = slider({\n min: 1000, \n max: 1000000000, \n step: 1000, \n value: 5000, \n title: \"Number of current Status users\", \n description: \"Increments in 1000 users\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":49,"value":"viewof percentUsersRegisterName = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1, \n step: .01, \n value: .5, \n title: \"Percentage of users that register a username\", \n description: \"Increments in percentages of 1\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":101,"value":"viewof percentageUserReleaseUsername = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1, \n step: .001, \n value: .025,\n precision: 3,\n title: \"Percentage of users that release a username (churn)\", \n description: \"Increments in percentages of 1\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":759,"value":"viewof terminalGrowthRate = slider({\n min: .01, \n max: 1, \n step: .01, \n value: 0.02, \n title: \"Terminal growth rate per annum (percent)\", \n description: \"percentages from 1% through 100%\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":51,"value":"md`### Setting initial value of $1 equivilant SNT per domain name`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":53,"value":"viewof dollarPriceDomain = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 100, \n step: 1, \n value: 1, \n title: \"Dollar cost per domainame:\", \n description: \"Integers from zero through 100\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":64,"value":"md`### P = dollarPriceDomain, Q = numberStatusUsers * PercentUsersRegisterName`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":79,"value":"viewof userGrowthRate = slider({\n min: .10, \n max: 10, \n step: .10, \n value: 3, \n title: \"User growth rate per annum (percent)\", \n description: \"percentages from 10% through 1000%\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":682,"value":"viewof userChurnRate = slider({\n min: .01, \n max: 1, \n step: .01, \n value: .10, \n title: \"User churn rate per annum (percent)\", \n description: \"percentages from 1% through 100%\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":957,"value":"md`## Here we estimate the probability of failure`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":959,"value":"viewof milestones = createMilestones(3)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":962,"value":"viewof qualifiers = createQualifers(0)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":964,"value":"viewof economicMechanic = createTokenModel(0)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":967,"value":"viewof decentralization = createDecentralization(0)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":779,"value":"viewof probabilityOfFailure = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1, \n step: .01, \n value: calculateProbabilityFailure(milestones, economicMechanic, qualifiers, decentralization), \n title: \"Probability of failure\", \n description: \"The probabilty that this project in isolation will fail\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":154,"value":"viewof discountRate = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1, \n step: .01, \n value: statusCostOfEquity, \n title: \"Discount Rate\", \n description: \"The rate at which future utility needs to be discounted (higher discounts indicate more uncertainty)\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":99,"value":"md`## Calculate users over 10 years`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":106,"value":"users = {\n let usersArr = [numberStatusUsers];\n for(let i=1; i < 10; i++) {\n let newUsers = usersArr[i-1] * userGrowthRate;\n let lostUsers = usersArr[i-1] * userChurnRate;\n usersArr[i] = Math.round(usersArr[i-1] + (newUsers - lostUsers));\n }\n return usersArr;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":992,"value":"viewof averageUserLifetime = slider({\n min: 1, \n max: 20, \n step: 1, \n value: 1 / userChurnRate, \n title: \"Length of user life\", \n description: \"Values from 1 to 20 years\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":114,"value":"usersBarData = {\n return users.map((users, idx) => ({ name: `year ${idx+1}`, year: idx+1, users, value: users }))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":675,"value":"slide`**The Power of Compounding**`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":659,"value":"slide`The number of users in year 10 is more than all the other years combined.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":671,"value":"slide`Changing the user growth rate from 300%/yr to 200%/yr changes the number of users from 1 Billion to 72 Million in year 10`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":217,"value":"md `### Visualize the number of users per year`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":110,"value":"vegalite({\n data: { values: usersBarData },\n mark: \"bar\",\n autosize: \"fit\",\n width: width,\n encoding: {\n x: {\n field: \"year\",\n type: \"quantitative\"\n },\n y: {\n field: \"users\",\n type: \"quantitative\"\n }\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":185,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":238,"value":"md `## Calculate the discounted utility value by year`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":126,"value":"aggregateDollarDemandPerYear = {\n return users.map((userCount, idx) => {\n if (idx) return ((userCount - users[idx-1]) * (percentUsersRegisterName - percentageUserReleaseUsername)) * dollarPriceDomain\n return (userCount * percentUsersRegisterName) * dollarPriceDomain\n })\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":995,"value":"userLifetimeValue = {\n let values = []\n for(let i=0; i count * percentUsersRegisterName)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":799,"value":"expectedRegistrationsPerDay = Math.floor(numberRegistrations[currentYear] / 365)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":802,"value":"expectedRegistrationsToDate = expectedRegistrationsPerDay * daysIntoCurrentYear","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":804,"value":"ytdRegistrations = 974","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":811,"value":"expectedToGoal = (expectedRegistrationsToDate / numberRegistrations[currentYear]) * 100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":809,"value":"ytdToGoal = (ytdRegistrations / numberRegistrations[currentYear]) * 100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":907,"value":"averagePricePerName = simpleStatistics.mean(sntCloses.slice(-daysIntoCurrentYear)) * 10","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":914,"value":"ytdRegistrationsValue = Math.floor(ytdRegistrations * averagePricePerName)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":923,"value":"ytdValueGoal = numberRegistrations[currentYear] * dollarPriceDomain","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":916,"value":"ytdExpectedValue = Math.floor(expectedRegistrationsToDate * dollarPriceDomain)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":926,"value":"ytdValueToGoal = Math.round((ytdRegistrationsValue / ytdValueGoal) * 100)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":930,"value":"ytdExpectedValueToGoal = Math.round((ytdExpectedValue / ytdValueGoal) * 100)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":86,"value":"import {slider} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":131,"value":"NPVaggregate = function (rate) {\n var npv = arguments[1];\n for (var i = 2; i < arguments.length; i++) {\n npv +=(arguments[i] / Math.pow((1 + rate), i - 1));\n }\n return Math.round(npv * 100) / 100;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":226,"value":"NPV = (rate, value, idx) => Math.round(value / Math.pow((1 + rate), idx + 1))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":147,"value":"numberWithCommas = (x) => {\n return x.toString().replace(/\\B(?=(\\d{3})+(?!\\d))/g, \",\");\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":89,"value":"vegalite = require('@observablehq/vega-lite')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":187,"value":"format = d3.format(\",\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":183,"value":"pie = d3.pie().padAngle(0.005).sort(null).value(d => d.value)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":194,"value":" height = Math.min(width, 500)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":192,"value":"arc = {\n const radius = Math.min(width, height) / 2;\n return d3.arc().innerRadius(radius * 0.67).outerRadius(radius - 1);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":18,"value":"d3 = require('d3')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":618,"value":"import {slide, slide_style} from \"@mbostock/slide\"\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":621,"value":"\nslide_style","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":761,"value":"terminalValue = {\n let lastYearFees = aggregateDollarDemandPerYear.slice(-1)[0]\n return lastYearFees / (discountRate - terminalGrowthRate)\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":766,"value":"discountedTerminalValue = terminalValue / ((1+discountRate)**11)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":775,"value":"currentUtilityValue = Math.floor(NPVaggregate(discountRate, ...aggregateDollarDemandPerYear) + discountedTerminalValue) * (1-probabilityOfFailure)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":137,"value":"CUV = numberWithCommas(currentUtilityValue)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":773,"value":"import {statusCostOfEquity, sntCloses} from '@bgits/status-cost-of-capital'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":910,"value":"simpleStatistics = require('simple-statistics')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":954,"value":"import {createMilestones, createQualifers, createTokenModel, createDecentralization, calculateProbabilityFailure} from '@bgits/cryptonetwork-probability-of-failure'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W35","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}