31:T401,{ let data = []; for (let i = 0 ; i < yearsToCalc ; i++) { d3.flatRollup(justiceData,v=>d3.sum(v,d=>d.totalDeathProbs[i]),d=>d.party).forEach(d=>{ data.push({ year: 2025 + i, party: d[0], expectedDeaths: d[1], }); }) } let x = d=>d.year; let y = d=>d.expectedDeaths; let fill = "party"; return Plot.plot({ marginBottom: 40, color: { legend: true, //scheme: "Set1", range: ["#377eb8","#e41a1c","#4daf4a","#984ea3","#ff7f00","#ffff33","#a65628","#f781bf","#999999"], // https://observablehq.com/@d3/color-schemes }, symbol: { // legend: symbol, }, title: "Cumulative expected deaths of current justices", subtitle: "How many current supreme court justices are expected to have died by year", //width, x: { grid: true, tickFormat: "", tickRotate: 45, }, y: { grid: true, zero: true }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0]), Plot.barY(data, {x, y, fill}) ] }) }32:T816,function justiceBarChart(jData = justiceData, yearOffset = 0) { let sortFunctions = { age: d=>-d.age, ageStart: d=>d.ageStart, termLength: d=>d.length.age, death4: d=>-d.totalDeathProbs[3] }; let sortF = sortFunctions.age; let domain = d3.sort(jData,sortF).map(d=>d.name); console.log("domain",domain); return Plot.plot({ title: "Ages of Justices, ages when confirmed, and years on the Court", marginLeft: 140, color: { legend: true, range: ["#377eb8","#e41a1c"] }, y: { label: "Justice", domain, }, x: { grid: true, label: "Age", }, marks: [ Plot.barX(jData, { x: d=>d.age + yearOffset, y: "name", fill: d=>d.party, }), Plot.text(jData, { x: d=>d.age + yearOffset, y: "name", text: d=>d.ageYears + yearOffset, fill: "black", textAnchor: "start", dx: 5, }), Plot.barX(jData, { x: d=>Number(d.ageStart), y: "name", fill: ()=>"#0008", //stroke: "black", }), Plot.text(jData, { x: d=>Number(d.ageStart), y: "name", text: d=>(d.name === domain[8] ? "Age when confirmed: " : "" )+ d.ageStart, fill: "white", textAnchor: "end", dx: -5, }), Plot.text(jData, { x: d=>(d.age + yearOffset + Number(d.ageStart))/2, y: "name", text: d=> (d.name === "Clarence Thomas" ? "Years on Court: " : "") + Math.floor(d.length.age + yearOffset), fill: "white", textAnchor: "middle", }), Plot.text(jData, { x: d=>0, y: "name", text: d=> "" + (yearOffset ? Math.round((d.totalDeathProbs[3+yearOffset]-d.totalDeathProbs[yearOffset])/(1-d.totalDeathProbs[yearOffset])*100) : Math.round(d.totalDeathProbs[3+yearOffset]*100))+ (d.name === domain[0] ? "% actuarial chance of death in 4 years" : "%"), fill: "white", textAnchor: "start", dx: 5, }), Plot.ruleX([0]), ] }); }33:T7a5,function createProbPlot(jData = justiceData, firstYear = 2025) { let data = []; let firstYi = firstYear - 2025; let allYearsData = getAllYearsCombinedDeathsProb(jData, yearsToCalc); console.log(allYearsData); allYearsData.forEach((d,yi)=>{ if (yi < firstYi) { return; } let probs = d3.flatRollup(allYearsData[yi],v=>d3.sum(v,d=>d.p),d=>d.R); let prob2 = 1 - probs[0][1] - probs[1][1]; let prob1 = probs[1][1]; data.push({ year: 2025 + yi, "Probability" : prob2, "Deaths" : "2+", probs, party: "R", }); data.push({ year: 2025 + yi, "Probability" : prob1, "Deaths" : "1", probs, party: "R", }); data.push({ year: 2025 + yi, "Probability" : probs[0][1], "Deaths" : "0", probs, party: "R", }); }); //return data; let x = d=>d.year; let y = d=>d["Probability"]; let fill = "Deaths"; return Plot.plot({ color: { legend: true, range: ["#e41a1c","#ffaaac","#377eb8"] }, symbol: { // legend: symbol, }, title: "Probability of 0, 1, or 2 or more R justices dying by year", subtitle: "When could the Supreme Court have a D majority if Ds maintained the presidency and controlled the Senate?", //width, x: { grid: true, tickFormat: d=>d%2 ? "": ""+d, }, y: { tickFormat: d=>100*d + "%", //grid: true, //zero: true }, marks: [ Plot.gridY({ interval: 0.1, stroke: "black", strokeOpacity: 0 }), Plot.ruleY([0]), Plot.barY(data, {x, y, fill}), Plot.text(data.filter(d=>d.Deaths == "2+" && d.Probability < 0.96), { x, y, text: d=>Math.round(100*y(d)) + "%", dy: -5, lineAnchor: "bottom" }), Plot.gridY({ interval: 0.5, stroke: "black", strokeOpacity: 0.5 }), ] }) }34:T4ab,justiceData = [...table.querySelectorAll("tr")].slice(2,11).map((r,ri)=> { let tds = [...r.querySelectorAll("td")]; let c0 = tds[0].innerText; let o = { image: tds[0].innerHTML, justiceText: tds[1].innerText, appointedBy: tds[2].innerText, SCV: tds[3].innerText, ageStart: tds[4].innerText, agePresent: tds[5].innerText, startDayAndLength: tds[6].innerText, succeeded: tds[7].innerText, }; let justiceInfo = o.justiceText.split("\n"); if (ri===0) { justiceInfo = justiceInfo.slice(1); } o.name = justiceInfo[0]; o.party = o.appointedBy.split("(")[1].slice(0,1); o.birthdate = justiceInfo[1]; o.birthdateDate = new Date(o.birthdate); o.birthplace = justiceInfo[2]; o.startDay = o.startDayAndLength.split("\n")[0]; o.startDate = new Date(o.startDay); o.length = getAge(o.startDate); o.lengthString = o.startDayAndLength.split("\n")[1]; let age = getAge(o.birthdateDate); let ageNextTerm = getAge(o.birthdateDate, new Date("2025-01-21")); o.ageYears = age.years; o.age = age.years + age.days/365; o.ageDays = age.days; o.ageNextTerm = ageNextTerm.years; o.sex = sexes[o.name]; addDeathProbs(o); return o; })35:T602,function getAge(birthdate, dateNow = new Date()) { let yearNow = dateNow.getFullYear(); let yearBorn = birthdate.getFullYear(); let birthMonth = birthdate.getMonth(); let birthdayDate = birthdate.getDate(); let birthdayThisYear = new Date(yearNow,birthMonth,birthdayDate); let doyNow = dayOfYear(dateNow); if (birthdayThisYear < dateNow) { let yearLength = 365; if (isLeapYear(yearNow)) { let feb29 = new Date(yearNow,1,29); if (birthdayThisYear < feb29 && dateNow >= feb29) { yearLength = 366; } } let years = yearNow - yearBorn; let days = doyNow - dayOfYear(birthdayThisYear); let age = years + days/yearLength; return { years, days, age, birthdate, birthdayThisYear, birthMonth, birthdayDate, } } let birthdayLastYear = new Date(yearNow-1,birthMonth,birthdayDate); let daysLastYear = dayOfYear(new Date(yearNow-1, 11, 31)); let years = yearNow - yearBorn - 1; let days = doyNow + daysLastYear - dayOfYear(birthdayLastYear); let yearLength = 365; if (isLeapYear(yearNow)) { let feb29 = new Date(yearNow,1,29); if (dateNow >= feb29) { yearLength = 366; } } else if (isLeapYear(yearNow-1)) { let feb29 = new Date(yearNow-1,1,29); if (birthdayLastYear < feb29) { yearLength = 366; } } let age = years + days/yearLength; return { years, days, age, birthdate, birthdayLastYear, birthdayThisYear, birthMonth, birthdayDate, }; }36:[{"id":"f7af7df22db440d1829519897799b095f3703710634583e6cdec1cf0fd6c196598552156a236e0879bbf393ed3d926339b2afc7cffbd3d310cab0882e21e0d30","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/f7af7df22db440d1829519897799b095f3703710634583e6cdec1cf0fd6c196598552156a236e0879bbf393ed3d926339b2afc7cffbd3d310cab0882e21e0d30","name":"PerLifeTables_M_Alt2_TR2024.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1764972392247.996,"size":795475},{"id":"df6113567471d32157ad65d7f4a6bd56314c4ce538a1e6bb710829e26046e5b9e320f703b3c185a68ad16a5ae40788bc7fafcd0bb59b28e005cd19703ef5d15a","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/df6113567471d32157ad65d7f4a6bd56314c4ce538a1e6bb710829e26046e5b9e320f703b3c185a68ad16a5ae40788bc7fafcd0bb59b28e005cd19703ef5d15a","name":"PerLifeTables_F_Alt2_TR2024.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1764972385056.467,"size":799369}] 2f:{"title":"Supreme Court Justices ages and flipping the majority","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Supreme Court Justices ages and flipping the majority","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":578,"value":"#### How many Democratic presidents would it take to have a 50% chance of flipping the Supreme Court from the current 6-3 conservative makeup to a 5-4 liberal majority?","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":555,"value":"justiceBarChart(justiceData)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":583,"value":"Based on the age and sex of each Justice and actuarial tables, if they were of average health, there would be almost a 50% chance of 2 or more Republican-appointed justices dying in 12 years. Since justices have better than average health care, it's more likely than not that the Democratic party would have needed to win in 2024 and hold the presidency for 3 or more terms to flip the ideological majority.\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":480,"value":"createProbPlot()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":588,"value":"\nHowever, the actuarial probability of two Republican-appointed dying in the next 4 years is just 7%, and there's an under 40% chance of just one dying (reducing the conservative majority to 5-4).\n\nA bigger issue for the 2024 election was the retirements of older justices. With Trump winning in 2024, the three oldest Republican-appointed justices, Thomas (76), Alito (74), and Roberts (69), could retire and be replaced by younger judges. After that, it would take until 2050 for there to be a 50% chance of 2 Republican-appointed justices dying, and the Democrats would only be able to flip the seats if they held the Presidency (and the Senate) when the deaths occurred.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":559,"value":"## If Thomas, Alito, and Roberts retire, in 3 years the court could look like this:","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":539,"value":"justiceBarChart(justiceDataAfterT2, 2)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":639,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":502,"value":"## If the 3 oldest R justices retired and were replaced by 3 40-year-old justices","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":491,"value":"createProbPlot(justiceDataAfterT2, 2029)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":204,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":17,"value":"Sources:\n\n* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Current_justices\n\n* https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/PerLifeTables/2024/PerLifeTables2024.html\n\n* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_notation#Force_of_mortality","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":550,"value":"------\n\n------","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":624,"value":"### Code Appendix","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":536,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":472,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":171,"value":"function getExpectedDeaths(year) {\n let t = 0 ;\n justiceData.forEach((d,i)=>{\n t += d.totalDeathProbs[year];\n });\n return t;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":173,"value":"expectedDeaths = getExpectedDeaths(19);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":175,"value":"expectedDeathsByParty = d3.flatRollup(justiceData,v=>d3.sum(v,d=>d.totalDeathProbs[19]),d=>d.party)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":228,"value":"yearsToCalc = 26","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":263,"value":"getAllCombinedDeathsProb(3)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":269,"value":"d3.flatRollup(allYearsCombinedDeathsProb[10],v=>d3.sum(v,d=>d.p),d=>d.R)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":272,"value":"allYearsCombinedDeathsProb = getAllYearsCombinedDeathsProb()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":476,"value":"function getAllYearsCombinedDeathsProb(jData = justiceData, years = yearsToCalc) {\n let a = [];\n \n for (let yi = 0 ; yi < years ; yi++) {\n a.push(getAllCombinedDeathsProb(yi, jData));\n }\n return a;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":258,"value":"function getAllCombinedDeathsProb(yearIndex,jData = justiceData) {\n let a = [];\n for (let d = 0 ; d < 512 ; d++) {\n let deathsString = d.toString(2).padStart(9,\"0\");\n let deaths = deathsString.split(\"\").map(Number);\n let p = getCombinedDeathsProb(yearIndex, deaths, jData);\n let o = {\n year: yearIndex + 2025,\n deathsString,\n p,\n R: 0,\n D: 0,\n total: 0,\n };\n deaths.forEach((died,i)=>{\n o.total += died ; \n o[jData[i].party] += died ; \n });\n a.push(o);\n }\n return a;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":163,"value":"function getCombinedDeathsProb(yearIndex,deaths, jData=justiceData) {\n if (!Array.isArray(deaths)) {\n deaths = deaths.toString(2).padStart(9,\"0\").split(\"\").map(Number);\n }\n let p = 1 ;\n\n deaths.forEach((d,i)=>{\n p = p * (d ? jData[i].totalDeathProbs[yearIndex] : (1-jData[i].totalDeathProbs[yearIndex]));\n });\n return p;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":148,"value":"justiceData.map(d=>d.name)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":150,"value":"sexes = ({\n \"John Roberts\":\"M\", \"Clarence Thomas\":\"M\", \"Samuel Alito\":\"M\", \"Sonia Sotomayor\":\"F\", \"Elena Kagan\":\"F\", \"Neil Gorsuch\":\"M\", \"Brett Kavanaugh\":\"M\", \"Amy Coney Barrett\":\"F\", \"Ketanji Brown Jackson\":\"F\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":484,"value":"justiceDataAfterT2 = {\n let data = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(justiceData));\n let i = 0 ;\n data.forEach(d=>{\n if (d.agePresent > 68 && d.party == \"R\") {\n Object.assign(d, {\n image:\"\",\n justiceText: \"Replacement for\\n\" + d.name,\n appointedBy: \"Trump (future)\",\n SCV:\"??\",\n ageStart:\"40\",\n agePresent:\"39\",\n startDayAndLength: \"Jul 1, 2026\\n0 years, 0 days\",\n succeeded: d.name,\n name: \"Sub for \" + d.name.split(\" \").slice(-1)[0],\n party: \"R\",\n birthdate: \"Jul 1, 1986\",\n birthdateDate: new Date(\"Jul 1, 1986\"),\n birthplace: \"?\", \n startDay: \"Dec 1, 2026\",\n startDate: new Date(\"Dec 1, 2026\"),\n length: {years:0, days:0, age:0},\n lengthString: \"0 years, 0 days\",\n ageYears: 40,\n ageNextTerm: 40,\n ageDays: 0,\n age: 40,\n sex:\"M\",\n });\n addDeathProbs(d,2029);\n }\n });\n return data;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":21,"value":"$34","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":493,"value":"function addDeathProbs(o,year1=2025) {\n o.deathProbs = [];\n let totalDeathProb = 0;\n o.totalDeathProbs = [];\n for (let y = year1 ; y < year1 + yearsToCalc ; y++) {\n let lifeTableRow = lifeTables[o.sex].filter(d=>d.Year===y && d.x === o.ageNextTerm + y-year1)[0];\n let q = lifeTableRow[\"q(x)\"];\n // https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_notation#Force_of_mortality\n o.deathProbs.push(q);\n totalDeathProb = totalDeathProb + (1-totalDeathProb)*q;\n o.totalDeathProbs.push(totalDeathProb);\n }\n \n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":101,"value":"function getProxyURL(url,useCache=false) {\n let proxyURL = (useCache ? config.corsProxyWithCache : config.corsProxy) + encodeURIComponent(url);\n console.log(\"getProxyURL\",proxyURL);\n return proxyURL;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":91,"value":"config= ({\n\tcorsProxy: 'https://cors.lvab.workers.dev/?u=',\n\tcorsProxyWithCache: 'https://cors.lvab.workers.dev/?c=1&u=',\n // https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/PerLifeTables/2024/PerLifeTables2024.html\n lifeTableMURL: \"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/PerLifeTables/2024/PerLifeTables_M_Alt2_TR2024.csv\",\n lifeTableFURL: \"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/PerLifeTables/2024/PerLifeTables_F_Alt2_TR2024.csv\",\n wikipediaURL: \"https://en.wikipedia.org/w/api.php?format=json&origin=*&action=parse&prop=text&page=Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States§ion=12\",\n})\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":643,"value":"lifeTableMText = FileAttachment(\"PerLifeTables_M_Alt2_TR2024.csv\").text()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":648,"value":"lifeTableFText = FileAttachment(\"PerLifeTables_F_Alt2_TR2024.csv\").text()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":89,"value":"//lifeTableMText = await fetch(getProxyURL(config.lifeTableMURL)).then(r=>r.text());","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":119,"value":"//lifeTableFText = await fetch(getProxyURL(config.lifeTableFURL)).then(r=>r.text());","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":110,"value":"lifeTableM = d3.csvParse(lifeTableMText.split(\"\\n\").slice(4).join(\"\\n\"),d3.autoType)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":157,"value":"lifeTables = ({M:lifeTableM,F:lifeTableF})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":121,"value":"lifeTableF = d3.csvParse(lifeTableFText.split(\"\\n\").slice(4).join(\"\\n\"),d3.autoType)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":11,"value":"json = (await fetch(config.wikipediaURL).then(response => response.json())).parse","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":13,"value":"wikipediaHTML = json.text['*']","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":40,"value":"dayOfYear(new Date(\"2023/12/31\"))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":38,"value":"function dayOfYear(date){\n return (Date.UTC(date.getFullYear(), date.getMonth(), date.getDate()) - Date.UTC(date.getFullYear(), 0, 0)) / 24 / 60 / 60 / 1000;\n}\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":54,"value":"getAge(new Date(\"1955-01-27T08:00Z\"));","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":383,"value":"function isLeapYear(year) {\n let feb29 = new Date(year,1,29);\n let mar1 = new Date(year,2,1);\n return feb29.valueOf() != mar1.valueOf();\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":50,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":19,"value":"table = {\n const parser = new DOMParser();\n const external = parser.parseFromString(wikipediaHTML, \"text/html\");\n const table = document.adoptNode(external.querySelector(\"table\"));\n table.style = `\n display: block;\n position: relative;\n max-width: none;\n max-height: 600px;\n overflow-y: auto;\n -webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;\n `;\n return table;\n}\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W36","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}