30:T474,timeStreaks = { const playerShots = realShots.filter(d => d.distance >= 0) const results = {} const streakQuota = 3 for (let i = 1; i <= streakQuota; i++) { results['all'] = { shots: [shots[0]] } results[`make-${i}`] = { shots: [] } results[`miss-${i}`] = { shots: [] } } for (let i = 1; i < playerShots.length; i++) { results['all'].shots.push(playerShots[i]) const lookBackCount = Math.min(streakQuota, i) const lastResult = playerShots[i - 1].made const lastResultString = lastResult ? 'make' : 'miss' let j = 1; while (j <= lookBackCount && playerShots[i - j].made === lastResult && Math.abs(playerShots[i - j].secondsIntoGame - playerShots[i].secondsIntoGame) < j * 180 ) { results[`${lastResultString}-${j}`].shots.push(playerShots[i]) j++ } } for (const [key, r] of Object.entries(results)) { const avgDistance = d3.mean(r.shots, s => s.distance) const fgm = r.shots.reduce((sum, s) => s.made ? sum + 1 : sum, 0) r.attempts = r.shots.length; r.fgm = fgm; r.fgpct = fgm / r.shots.length; r.avgDistance = avgDistance; } return results }31:T413,streaks = { const playerShots = realShots.filter(d => d.distance >= 0) const results = {} const streakQuota = 3 for (let i = 1; i <= streakQuota; i++) { results['all'] = { shots: [shots[0]] } results[`make-${i}`] = { shots: [] } results[`miss-${i}`] = { shots: [] } } for (let i = 1; i < playerShots.length; i++) { results['all'].shots.push(playerShots[i]) const lookBackCount = Math.min(streakQuota, i) const lastResult = playerShots[i - 1].made const lastResultString = lastResult ? 'make' : 'miss' let j = 1; while (j <= lookBackCount && playerShots[i - j].made === lastResult) { results[`${lastResultString}-${j}`].shots.push(playerShots[i]) j++ } } for (const [key, r] of Object.entries(results)) { const fgm = r.shots.reduce((sum, s) => s.made ? sum + 1 : sum, 0) const avgDistance = d3.mean(r.shots, s => s.distance) r.attempts = r.shots.length; r.fgm = fgm; r.fgpct = fgm / r.shots.length; r.avgDistance = avgDistance } return results }32:[{"id":"1dcda3d900f5b9abd75a6e239f17137ee54aaba20dbc4a255c8ad28f4a1d5b1c8b18dd025902a75d86ad7f456d2c60762e256e20a850bd82afbca8f2f89af861","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/1dcda3d900f5b9abd75a6e239f17137ee54aaba20dbc4a255c8ad28f4a1d5b1c8b18dd025902a75d86ad7f456d2c60762e256e20a850bd82afbca8f2f89af861","name":"steph-shots.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1617207005610.17,"size":406261}] 2e:{"title":"Hot Hand","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Hot Hand`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":86,"value":"samples = runMultiSample({\n numShots: 20 ,\n shootingPct: 0.50,\n hotStreakQuota: 3,\n numSamples: 5000\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":131,"value":"samples.results.filter(d => d.realHotStreakShootingPct).map(d => d.realHotStreakShootingPct)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":121,"value":"vl.data(samples.results.filter(d => !isNaN(d.realHotStreakShootingPct)))\n .layer(\n vl.markPoint()\n .data(samples.results.filter(d => !isNaN(d.realHotStreakShootingPct)).map((d, i) => ({ ...d, index: i})).slice(0, 200))\n .encode(\n vl.x().fieldQ(\"index\"),\n vl.y().fieldQ(\"realHotStreakShootingPct\").scale({ domain: [0, 1] }).axis({ title: 'Hot Streak Shooting Pct' }),\n vl.color().fieldQ('realHotStreakShootingPct').scale({ scheme: 'redblue', reverse: true })\n // vl.color().fieldO('type').scale({ range: [ '#F64C72', '#242582' ] }),\n ),\n // vl.markLine({ interpolate: 'cardinal' })\n // .data(merged.filter(d => d.type === 'Average'))\n // .encode(\n // vl.x().fieldT(\"date\"),\n // vl.y().fieldQ(\"avgScore\").scale({ domain: [60, 130] }),\n // vl.color().fieldO('type').scale({ range: [ '#F64C72', '#242582' ] }),\n // ),\n )\n .title('Average Scoring')\n .width(500)\n .config(baseVegaConfig)\n .render() ","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":147,"value":"vl.markBar({ cornerRadius: 2 })\n .data(samples.results.filter(d => d.realHotStreakShootingPct))\n .encode(\n vl.y(),\n vl.x().count().axis({ title: 'Number of Appearances' }),\n vl.color().fieldO(\"deal.closed\").scale({ domain: [true, false], range: ['#584Cf2', '#bbc'] }).legend({ title: 'Deal Closed' })\n )\n .config(baseVegaConfig)\n .render() ","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":34,"value":"shootingPct = 0.4","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":39,"value":"shotsTaken = 1000","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":37,"value":"shots = {\n return d3.range(0, shotsTaken).map(d => Math.random() > 0.5)\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":56,"value":"realHotStreakShootingPct = shotsAfterHotStreak.reduce((acc, s) => s.made ? 1 + acc : acc, 0) / shotsAfterHotStreak.length","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":43,"value":"realShootingPct = shots.reduce((acc, s) => s ? 1 + acc : acc, 0) / shots.length","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":47,"value":"streakRequirement = 3","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":46,"value":"shotsAfterHotStreak = {\n return shots.map((d, i) => ({ made: d, index: i })).filter((d, i) => {\n if (i < streakRequirement) {\n return false\n }\n for (let j = 1; j <= streakRequirement; j++) {\n if (!shots[i - j]) {\n return false\n }\n }\n return true\n })\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":83,"value":"runMultiSample = {\n return ({ numShots, shootingPct, hotStreakQuota, numSamples }) => {\n let results = []\n for (let i = 0; i < numSamples; i++) {\n const sampleResults = runSample({ numShots, shootingPct, hotStreakQuota })\n results.push(sampleResults)\n }\n const avgShootingPct = d3.mean(results, d => d.realShootingPct)\n const chunkedHotShootingPct = d3.mean(results, d => d.realHotStreakShootingPct)\n const allShotsAfterHot = [].concat(...results.map(d => d.shotsAfterHotStreak))\n const hotShootingPct = allShotsAfterHot.reduce((acc, s) => s.made ? 1 + acc : acc, 0) / allShotsAfterHot.length\n return {\n results,\n avgShootingPct,\n hotShootingPct,\n chunkedHotShootingPct \n }\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":72,"value":"runSample = {\n return ({ numShots, shootingPct, hotStreakQuota }) => {\n const shots = d3.range(0, numShots).map(d => Math.random() < shootingPct)\n const shotsAfterHotStreak = shots.map((d, i) => ({ made: d, index: i })).filter((d, i) => {\n if (i < streakRequirement) {\n return false\n }\n for (let j = 1; j <= streakRequirement; j++) {\n if (!shots[i - j]) {\n return false\n }\n }\n return true\n })\n const realHotStreakShootingPct = shotsAfterHotStreak.reduce((acc, s) => s.made ? 1 + acc : acc, 0) / shotsAfterHotStreak.length\n const realShootingPct = shots.reduce((acc, s) => s ? 1 + acc : acc, 0) / shots.length\n return {\n realShootingPct,\n realHotStreakShootingPct,\n shots,\n numShots,\n shootingPct,\n hotStreakQuota,\n shotsAfterHotStreak,\n }\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9,"value":"md`## Appendix`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":206,"value":"$30","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":180,"value":"$31","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":177,"value":"realShots = {\n const json = await FileAttachment(\"steph-shots.json\").json({ typed: true})\n return json.data.map(d => {\n let secondsIntoGame\n if (d.period <= 4) {\n secondsIntoGame = (d.period - 1) * 12 * 60 + (12 - d.minutes_remaining) * 60 - d.seconds_remaining\n } else {\n secondsIntoGame = (d.period - 1) * 12 * 60 + (5 - d.minutes_remaining) * 60 - d.seconds_remaining \n }\n return {\n made: !!d.shot_made_flag,\n distance: d.shot_distance,\n secondsIntoGame,\n ...d\n }\n })\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":12,"value":"md`### Visualization Libraries`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":15,"value":"import { vl } from \"@vega/vega-lite-api\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":20,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\", \"d3-array@2\", \"d3-sankey@0.12\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":23,"value":"baseVegaConfig = \n({\n font: 'lato',\n background: 'white',\n title: { fontSize: 13 },\n axis: { labelFont: 'lato', gridColor: 'white', gridWidth: 2.5, domain: false, tickColor: '#c4b4d2', labelColor: '#647492', tickSize: 3, tickCount: 6, titlePadding: 10, labelPadding: 5, titleColor: '#344462', titleFontSize: 13 },\n padding: 10,\n view: { fill: '#F7FAFF', stroke: 'white' },\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":29,"value":"md`### Utils`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":26,"value":"import { select } from \"@robert-moore/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W32","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}