30:T4fa,md`# Bibliography [1]-Rosenberg, Tina. “Opinion | A New Deal for Refugees.” The New York Times, 22 Aug. 2018. NYTimes.com, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/21/opinion/refugee-camps-integration.html. (Jordan agreeing to host "650,000 Syrian refugees") [2]-Ayed, Miriam Konradsen. “Jordan Corruption Report.” Business Anti-Corruption Portal, https://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/jordan/. [3]-Bliss, Bailey. “Thailand Corruption Report.” Business Anti-Corruption Portal, https://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/thailand/. [4]-World Health Organization: http://www.who.int/countries/jor/en/ [5]-Child Vaccination: Wayback Machine. 8 Apr. 2008, https://web.archive.org/web/20080408191438/http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/hdr_20072008_en_indicator_tables.pdf. [6]-Healthcare in Jordan: World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/country/jordan [7]-Tacconelli, E. GLOBAL PRIORITY LIST OF ANTIBIOTIC-RESISTANT BACTERIA TO GUIDE RESEARCH, DISCOVERY, AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ANTIBIOTICS. p. 7. http://www.who.int/medicines/publications/WHO-PPL-Short_Summary_25Feb-ET_NM_WHO.pdf [8]-21 Scary Things Big Data Knows About You. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/03/08/21-scary-things-big-data-knows-about-you/#3ec94506e7d0. ` 31:T4b0,slide = { function slide() { const container = document.createElement("div"); container.className = "slide"; container.appendChild(md.apply(this, arguments)); return container; } function code(strings) { const container = document.createElement("div"); const pre = container.appendChild(document.createElement("pre")); const code = pre.appendChild(document.createElement("code")); let string = strings[0] + "", i = 0, n = arguments.length; while (++i < n) string += arguments[i] + "" + strings[i]; code.textContent = string.trim(); container.className = "slide slide--code"; return container; } slide.code = code; slide.js = function() { const container = code.apply(this, arguments); const content = container.firstChild.firstChild; content.className = "js hljs javascript"; hl.highlightBlock(content); return container; }; slide.img = function(strings) { const img = new Image; let string = strings[0] + "", i = 0, n = arguments.length; while (++i < n) string += arguments[i] + "" + strings[i]; img.src = string.trim(); img.className = "slide slide--img"; return img; }; return slide; }32:[] 2e:{"title":"Jordan Case Study: Population Models,","cells":[{"id":279,"value":"md`# Jordan Case Study: Population Models,`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":327,"value":"md`***where people live and go in Jordan, and how do we model their movements.***`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":33,"value":"md`**Table of Contents**\n- The Demographic Transition Model\n- The Population Pyramid Model\n- Epidemiologic Transition Model\n- Rostow’s Modernization Model\n- And Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory Model\n\n**Note:** see sources below.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":13,"value":"slide`## The Demographic Transition Model`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":434,"value":"md`**Criticism:**\n\nI think one thing the DTM model fails to address is the influx of immigration coming in into a specific country. It may address it as part of the **Total Population** variable but is only noticeable in the 5th stage (when population is really low). \n\nAs for Jordan, there has been an increase in the amount of refugees coming in that may potentially decide to live there and after a few generations that may increase the total birth rates depending how many refugees are there who may decide to stay.[1]\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":4,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/0ufi08e.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":57,"value":"md`The data suggests that Jordan's demographic transition is in stage 3 (1950-2018).\n- Birth Rates is falling faster.\n- Death rates is falling slower.\n- There is a population explosion.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":354,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/I8CGX0g.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":390,"value":"md`**Comment:** The percentage of women who use contraceptives over the years have made steady increase over the last century. Around 61.2% in 2012, this can also be linked to the literacy rate in Jordan being very high (shown below).`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":351,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/P50gjJi.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":353,"value":"md`**Comment:** At the same time, the total fertility rates of Jordan was declining, the literacy rate increased to 95.9% as of 2011. And as we have pointed out earlier, there might be correlation between people better educated and the use of contraceptives in general. In fact, primary education is free in Jordan so most children do get to finish primary education regardless of the income bracket they are in, which may have increased the literacy rate of the nation drastically.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":469,"value":"md`**General Prediction**:\n\nI think the Jordan is a likely candidate to becoming a developed nation relatively soon due to its ability to raise the standard education of everyone while maintaining governmental control under control (low corruption compare to other developing countries).\n\nAfter examining the evidence brought up by the GAN Business Anti Corruption Portal report, the country, like most countries even developed, still faces moderate levels of corruption.[2] But it does not hinder progress and blatantly express to a staggering amount found in some poor countries.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":74,"value":"slide`## The Population Pyramid Model`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":458,"value":"md`**Criticism:**\n\nIf there's one thing the population pyramid does not show us, is the state in which the society of the country it is modeling is after is at, at any given point in time. The model shows us the general overview of society as a whole, of who can take care of who in any given point but it does not tell much about the way things are going for the people living in these different societies.\n\nIn fact, a good example would be Thailand, while its population pyramid seems to reflect that of a nation that is developed (rectangular middle to bottom), income disparity is still an issue in Thailand and there are still corruption in most sectors where money is exchanged, making it still a developing a developing nation as far as things goes for the nation as a whole.[3]`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":71,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/Nmeq0j7.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":77,"value":"md` **Comment:** The population pyramid is ** *expansive* **.\n- Majority are young and working people.\n- There are also old people, which suggests standard of living there isn't too bad, good heathcare.\n- Moderately high child dependency ratio but moderately low old-age dependency ratio.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":345,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/JTjzRrn.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":347,"value":"md`**Comment:** Over in this demographic, we can see that Jordan's life expectancy was increasing over the last century. Showing that people are living longer as health care and infrastructure improved. One thing to note is that, Jordan has good infrastructure so the deaths that was often attributed from vehicle accidents in so many developing countries is much less in Jordan, meaning people live longer.[4]`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":359,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/6bQyfbd.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":362,"value":"md`**Comment:** As for the reason why it is expansive, has to do with the survival rate of infants under the age of 5. They are also increasing, making the shape of the population more like a pyramid. Jordan also has an advanced healthcare system, by 2002, 95% of children under the age of 5 have been vaccinated.[5]`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":542,"value":"md`**General Prediction:**\n\nJordan's is going to face a decline in its younger population within the next generation as people become more educated and the standards of living improve there. As far as I can tell, the current relations with Israel is neutral but conflict within surrounding nations may hinder its progress as a nation in the future.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":89,"value":"slide`## The Epidemiological Transition Model`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":508,"value":"md`**Criticism:**\n\nThis model attempts to look into the amount of deaths attributed by deseases, infections and epidemics in general of a given nation. It fails to reveal anything worrying about a country when faced with systemic issues arising from Governmental infrastructure leading to accidents or the number of deaths attributed to murder and natural disasters. \n\nThis, of course, leaves a hole in the number of deaths in a nation with high standards of living but also high numbers of suicide rate as well as the above mentioned causes of deaths.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":429,"value":"md`**Comment:** According to World's Bank data, 99% of Jordan's population has got access to clean water and sanitation, meaning water borne desease is unlikely to occur with such great infrastructures.[6]`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":299,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/TEXgaMl.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":301,"value":"md`**Comment:** In cross examining the model, Jordan has not come across any major epidemics in the last hundred years (around 4 deaths in 1980 at its highest peak). \n\nCombined, the two models tells us that Jordan is past the age of ***pesitilence and famine***, and in the beginning of the 1950s to 1990s was the age of ***receding pandemic*** until where we are today in 2018 entering settling in for the age of ***Degenerative and Man-made Desease***.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":365,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/E5k3nnJ.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":367,"value":"md`**Comment:** Number of people that have HIV positive is almost 0, as the case with many other infectious deseases. But prevalence of Diabetes from the age of 20-79 reveals the number is 11.9% in 2017 making it likely to be in stage 4 of the Epidemiological Transition model.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":504,"value":"md`**General Prediction**:\n\nI think Jordan is doing pretty well in the present, in terms of Healthcare, Infrastructure and Sanitation in general but things might not be looking well for the world as a whole in the long run because of the number of pens and factories we have to process these livestocks. Antibiotics as part of our livestocks diet have already began.[7]\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":132,"value":"slide` ## Rostow Model of Modernization` ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":515,"value":"md `** Criticism:**\n\nThis model is preconditioned for take off as of now in the present and it fails to address fully the intracacy of future societies. I think this model instill a true yet pessimisstic view of the world from a capitalistic point of view. And we can't have that transferred into the minds of young people if we wish to make the world a better place. I think stage 5 is a sad way to look at the world but unfortunately is the way things are headed for the masses.\n\nI think where the model got wrong is the idea that the masses will always be the same. But instead we see people are moving away mass consumption now and more towards something specific for them as technology is able to facilitate personal preference and know exactly what you want, where you are and who you are; maybe we are moving towards personalized consumption more than mass consumption nowadays.[8]\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":159,"value":"md`**Comment:** Divided into 5 stages, this model tells us that Jordan had already began take off period way before 1950 and in 2018, the nation still has a long way till 5th stage of growth as most of the nation's profit still comes from the industrial sector.\n\n- Jordan is ranked as having the 35th best infrastructure in the world.\n- It has a well developed industrial sector.\n- Life expectancy is around 74.8 years in 2017.\n- Primary education is free in Jordan.\n- 8060 researchers per million people. (2532 is the global average)\n- 55th out of 175 countries in the Corruption Perceptions Index.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":168,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/jh7q8QQ.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":175,"value":"md`**Comment:** But Jordan is still considerred a developing nation for the most part. It is still in stage 4, \"***Drive to Technological Maturity***.\"`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":374,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/w0rzsn0.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":401,"value":"md`**Comment:** This graph shows, the number of people with internet access is around 60% in 2016, meaning over half the population has got internet access and is driving towards technological maturity. The United States has around 70 percent, so there isn't too much of a difference between the two, if we were to compare it to a developed nation.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":370,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/sJdg4JY.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":372,"value":"md`**Comment:** The number of arable land in hectares per person in Jordan is close to zero, meaning there's barely enough farmland for the population to live off of. \n\nTheir source of income had to come from somewhere else which tells to us that Jordan isn't a country that can rely on the Primary sector and that is why we see that Jordan is more developed in the Secondary sector and slightly more in the Tertiary sector than primary as a developing country. `","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":545,"value":"md`**General Prediction**:\n\nI think Jordan will reach stage 5 at some point in the next 2-3 decades from now but it is unlikely that would happen while surrounding nations are in conflicts with eachother, making it bad for businesses to come and invest in the middle east.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":194,"value":"slide`## Wallerstein's World-Systems Theory Model`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":484,"value":"md`**Criticism:**\n\nThis model tends to over simplify things a little in terms of how a country can develop as well as how money can be made. Because the internet changed the rules in how things play out in all areas of life. It has brought with it, the drastic change that this model can't very well keep up with.\n\nI don't think there are any countries that are still in the periphery stages currently (as of 2018), I think some of the war torn places might count but even in those places, they don't have much natural resources to sell to the places that need it. The internet has brought also along with it, education and ways to make money that wouldn't have otherwise been possible, currently anyone from anywhere can provide a service \"online\", albiet legal or illegal, there are revenues from both end of the streams.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":198,"value":"slide.img`https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/15/Imf-advanced-un-least-developed-2008.svg`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":407,"value":"html`\n

\n Advanced economies
\n Emerging and developing economies (not least developed)
\n Emerging and developing economies (least developed)

\n Classifications by the IMF and the UN 2008\n

\n`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":409,"value":"md`**Comment:** The graph above tells us that Jordan is a semi-periphery nation, classified by the IMF and UN in 2008.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":378,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/QFJXbdR.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":412,"value":"md`**Comment:** The average income in Jordan per person in Jordan per year is around eight thousand dollars, that's seven hundred dollars per month, which is relatively high compare to other developing countries but still well below the developed nation standards of living and paycheck. `","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":381,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/j8dx9KV.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":414,"value":"md ` **Comment:** Around a third of its GDP comes from exporting goods, showing that the country still relies heavily on manufacturing goods in factories compare to the US and other developed nations.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":384,"value":"slide.img`https://i.imgur.com/ZEgKHXN.png`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":225,"value":"md`**Comment:** According to the model, Jordan is a semi-periphery country, it sells products and manufactures them; Jordan has little raw/natural resources to sell, making it unlikely to be periphery.` ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":501,"value":"md`** General Prediction:**\n\nI think as we become more technologically advanced, most of the semi-periphery countries will become core countries as well. There might be some country that simply die out way into the future simply because there isn't enough room for everyone to be big and powerful, and those who can't adapt to the more faster changing world will have to face this fact sooner or later.\n\nCountries like Jordan might have a shot if it keeps on improving its technology, research and infrastructure but countries that fail at this is most likely going to go extinct in the far distopian future.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":134,"value":"md`# Sources:`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":138,"value":"md`\nGapminder:\nhttps://www.gapminder.org/tools/\n\nPopulation Pyramid:\nhttps://www.populationpyramid.net/jordan/2017/\n\nJordan Modernization:\n - \"The Global Competitiveness Report 2010–2011\". World Economic Forum. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2010-11.pdf\n\n- \"Doing Business in Jordan\" (PDF). U.S. Department of Commerce. 1 January 2014. https://photos.state.gov/libraries/jordan/444376/pdf/2014CCGFinal.pdf\n\n- Compare to developed nations: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/data-explorer#{%22mode%22:%22graph%22,%22axes%22:[{%22y%22:%22best_country_rank_overall%22}],%22countries%22:[%22Australia%22,%22Canada%22,%22China%22,%22Jordan%22,%22United%20Kingdom%22,%22United%20States%22]}\n\n- \"Corruption Perceptions Index 2015 Results\". Transparency International. 1 January 2015. http://www.transparency.org/cpi2014/results/\n\n- Research in Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC): http://www.sesric.org/files/article/394.pdf\n\n\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":446,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":148,"value":"md`## Implementaion of slides is by Mike Bostock: `","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":7,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9,"value":"slide_style = html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":11,"value":"hl = require(\"@observablehq/highlight.js@1.0.0/highlight.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W32","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}