1d:{"title":"DDD#8 An illusion of predictability","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# DDD#8 An illusion of predictability\n\n## Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":5,"value":"Paper link:
[An illusion of predictability in scientific results:
Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability\n](https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2302491120)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":137,"value":"$1f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":361,"value":"viewof type = Inputs.select( arg.map( e => e.name) , {value:'normal', label: \"Select a distribution\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":80,"value":"$20","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":374,"value":"viewof option2 = Inputs.form(\n [\n Object.assign(Inputs.range([0, 10000], {label: 'Samples per run', value:200, step: 1, transform: Math.log}),{style: '--label-width: 50px'}),\n Object.assign(Inputs.range([90, 99.9], {label: 'confidence range, %', value:95, step: .1}),{style: '--label-width: 65px'}),\n Inputs.button(\"Reroll sample\", {width:55})\n ],\n {\n template: (inputs) => htl.html`

\n ${inputs}\n

`\n }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":198,"value":"$21","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9,"value":"### Confidence Interval Equation\n\n${tex`CI = \\bar{x} \\pm z \\dfrac{s}{\\sqrt{n}}`}\n\nwhere:
\n${tex`\\bar{x} =`} sample mean
\n${tex`z =`} two tailed z score for confidence level
\n${tex`s =`} sample standard deviation
\n${tex`n =`} sample size
","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":566,"value":"| Cohen's d | Common Language Effect Size |\n|---|---|\n|0.2 | 53% |\n|0.5 | 58% |\n|0.8 | 62% |\n|2 | 75% |","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":563,"value":"CLES = { // cohen's d to common language effect size\n let d = 2\n let r = Math.sqrt(d**2 / (d**2 + 4))\n return Math.asin(r)/Math.PI+.5\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":447,"value":"### Libraries","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":31,"value":"stdlib = require( \"https://unpkg.com/@stdlib/stdlib@0.0.32/dist/stdlib-flat.min.js\" )","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":61,"value":"dists = stdlib.base.dists","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":365,"value":"[Form template notebook](https://observablehq.com/@tophtucker/use-inputs-form-with-a-template)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"}],"files":"$W22","stdlib":"1"}